#Variant perception definition trial

The good news is, once you get the hang of these short rhythms, you can ride the market like a surfer rides a wave. They will soar – or tumble – on the flimsiest of rumors or press releases. The same rhythm applies to news related to cruise line, hotel and airline stocks.

#Variant perception definition trial

If some bearish news on a trial seeps out, these same stocks will tumble. If there is some bullish news on a vaccine trial, you can expect Gilead Sciences (Nasdaq: GILD) or Moderna (Nasdaq: MRNA) to soar. Today, individual stocks will move on COVID-19-related news. Now it’s COVID-19-related news that dominates the markets. There is always some narrative that dominates the financial headlines.Īfter 9/11, it was the threat of global terrorism.Īfter the global financial crisis of 2008, it was the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Variant perception is a way of thinking that homes in on the very best investment opportunities. I assume that markets are always wrong… This line of reasoning leads me to look for the flaw in every investment thesis… I am ahead of the curve. The prevailing wisdom is that markets are always right. Super speculator George Soros put it perhaps best… Variant perception suggests that the key to successful investing is believing almost the exact opposite. That’s why markets are efficient – and why it is so hard to beat a simple index fund. The market always has a particular view on a stock or asset.Īcademics argue that a stock’s price reflects all publicly known information about it. So a variant perception is simply a different way of looking at things. “Perception” is defined as “the act of apprehending by means of the senses or of the mind.” “Variant” is defined as “differing” or “not universally accepted.” It’s also a concept that is particularly relevant to identifying both short- and long-term investment opportunities in today’s news-driven stock market.Ĭlick here to watch Nicholas Vardy’s latest video update. And it is one of the most important mental models for investing you will ever come across. Variant perception is a straightforward idea with a fancy name. The phrase “variant perception” was coined by an irascible stock picker named Michael Steinhardt, one of the hedge fund managers profiled in Jack Schwager’s classic book, Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders. “Variant perception is the effort to become sufficiently knowledgeable about whatever the subject is, that at a time to be at variance from consensus, because one of the few sure ways to make money in the market is to have a view that is off consensus and have that view turned out to be right.” Today, Nicholas Vardy explains how variant perception offers a different way of looking at things… and a whole new investment strategy.The market is in a constant ebb and flow, regularly influenced by the latest headlines.